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As far as that Article you mentioned about "Herd Immunity",
It would not let me read it without creating an account.

I kinda have a hard time subscribing to a website which in the Very 1st Sentence
of a "Journalistic Article" refers to the Corona Virus as "the CCP Virus"...

IMO,
That to me kinda throws the Integrity of their "Un-Bias Journalism" right out the window.
(Plenty of that going around these days)
Try this link...

https://www.theepochtimes.com/herd-immunity-threshold-against-covid-19-may-be-lower-than-believed-researchers_3432152.html

If that doesn't work DuckDuckGo will get you there if you search for Epoch Times Herd Immunity

As for The Epoch Times bias, oh hell yeah - the paper was started by religious refugees being persecuted by the CCP, but that's really irrelevant to the article.

I'm on the run at the moment but will comeback on the chart and article. You make a fair point on scale, but it still doesn't answer why one is moving and not the other.
 

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I have come to the conclusion that the US CDC’s website, well... sucks. The information they are providing on Covid-19 is confusing, jumbled and appears to mash pneumonia, influenza and ‘rona all together. Other than a spike in March (~week’s 10-15) that amalgamation of “respiratory” deaths appears to be running below the average for the past 5 years - inclusive of Covid-19. Before we put a stamp on this one and send it, anyone else want to take a look?

Now for the EU CDC’s data, as of today:


And to your point WD, you are right, the linear scale necessary to show cases vs deaths does squeeze the death line so here it is by itself:


And it highlights an important point. Deaths haven’t been flat... the rate is actually going down:


Once again though, there are inconsistencies in the data (ECDC sources The Atlantic’s Covid Tracking Project which claims to be pulling death data directly from state health departments).

…and if you ever wanted to know why comparing mortality rates fails to account for the real impact, here is data comparing mortality rates for the G7:
 

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Discussion Starter #843
Your last sentence about "Real Impact"
and something Swamp had mentioned in an earlier post reminded me of something.

Hospitalizations and the "overwhelming" of the Health Care systems could cause great danger.
which brings me back to that chart and the thought the death rate will not be staying "flat" much longer....

I gotta admit,,
I never thought i / we would ever be having a conversation of this nature.
much less speaking of National & World wide "infection / death rates" in such a casual way...
 

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Your last sentence about "Real Impact"
and something Swamp had mentioned in an earlier post reminded me of something.

Hospitalizations and the "overwhelming" of the Health Care systems could cause great danger.
Hospitals have not been "overwhelmed" despite the press' sensational headlines in this second wave. I wish I could channel Alex Berensen here because he's been providing clear facts to refute some pretty outlandish claims.

Here's one example of many:






which brings me back to that chart and the thought the death rate will not be staying "flat" much longer....
Let's all hope the rate doesn't stay flat but continues to go down and down far enough that the actual daily average shrinks as well!!!

While work continues on a vaccine, new methods for treating symptoms are having a materially positive impact on the sickest patients WHO welcomes preliminary results about dexamethasone use in treating critically ill COVID-19 patients

I gotta admit,,
I never thought i / we would ever be having a conversation of this nature.
much less speaking of National & World wide "infection / death rates" in such a casual way...
I agree. The truly sad thing is the number of deaths from Alzheimer's, Cancer, Cardiovascular disease, etc. that are much higher but we don't even know, care or talk about.

Now if you want to get really callous about who's dying; Berensen posted this earlier today re: deaths in Michigan:



 

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Mike Rowe responds to an email with common sense.


“Mike. In a recent post, you said you’ve been to Tennessee and Georgia, giving speeches and filming for your new show. Before that, you were on the road shooting for Dirty Jobs. Is it really so important to film a television show in the midst of pandemic? Is it responsible of you to encourage this kind of behavior when infection rates are spiking? Don’t you watch the news? More and more cases every day – aren’t you concerned?

Darlene Gabon

Rowe replied:

“Hi Darlene
Of course, I’m concerned. I’m just not petrified.
On March 15th, the day after my part of the country was locked down, I posted a link to an interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm. I’m posting it again, because I believe you and everyone else in the country would benefit from listening carefully to what he has to say. https://bit.ly/2WLOM6o
Dr. Osterholm is the Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy. This is the same epidemiologist who ten years ago, predicted a coronavirus would come from China and turn our country upside down. In his book “Deadliest Enemies,” he anticipated the utterly irresponsible way in which the media would report on the situation, the completely opportunistic and shamelessly political way our leaders would likely react, and the unprecedented chaos and confusion that would arise from all the mixed messages from the medical community. His resume is unexampled, https://bit.ly/3jvzQTW, and his analysis of the situation is the most logical and persuasive of any I’d heard so far. He’s also the only expert I know of who hasn’t walked back his numbers, reconsidered his position, or moved the goalposts with regard to what we must do, what we can do, and what he expects to happen next. I say all of this because Dr. Osterholm publicly predicted – in early MArch – that we could conservatively see over 100 million COVID cases in this country, with a very strong possibility of 480,000 fatalities – even if we successfully “flattened the curve.”
It took me a few weeks to accept this scenario, because 480,000 fatalities is a frightening number, and [a] lot of other experts were saying lots of conflicting things. But eventually, I came to the conclusion that Dr. Osterholm was probably correct, and quickly navigated the four stages of grief that usually precede acceptance – denial, anger, bargaining, and depression. By late April, I had come to accept Dr. Osterholm’s predictions as a matter of fact. Since then, I’ve had three full months to come to terms with the fact that, a) I am probably going to get COVID-19 at some point, b), I am almost certainly going to survive it, and c), I might very well give it to someone else.
I hope that doesn’t sound blasé, or glib, or fatalistic, or selfish. Four-hundred eighty thousand deaths is an obvious tragedy, and I’m deeply sympathetic to all who have been impacted thus far. I’m also very concerned for my parents, and everyone else in a high risk category. But when Dr. Osterholm says that COVID can be slowed but not stopped, I believe him. When he says a vaccine will not necessarily hasten herd immunity, I believe him. And when he says that people have confused “flattening the curve” with “eliminating the virus,” I believe him.
Thus, for the last three months, I’ve been operating from the assumption that this is a year-round virus that’s eventually going to infect 100 million people and kill roughly 1/2 of one percent of those infected, conservatively. I’ve accepted those numbers. Unfortunately, millions of others have not. Many people have no sense of where this is headed, and I understand why. They’ve been betrayed by a hysterical media that insists on covering each new reported case as if it were the first case. Every headline today drips with dread, as the next doomed hotspot approaches the next “grim milestone.” And so, for a lot of people, everyday is Groundhogs [sic] Day. They’re paralyzed by the rising numbers because the numbers have no context. They don’t know where it will end. But Dr. Osterholm says he does, and I’m persuaded that he’s correct. He might be wrong, and frankly, I hope he is, but either way, he’s presented us with a set of projections based on a logical analysis, and accepting those projections has allowed me to move past denial, anger, bargaining, and depression, and get on with my life with a better understanding of what the risks really are.
Fact is, we the people can accept almost anything if we’re given the facts, and enough time to get evaluate the risk and make our own decisions. Last year in this country, there were six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities. Tragic, for sure. But imagine for a moment if no one had ever died from a car accident. Imagine if this year, America endured six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities…for the first time ever. Now, imagine if these accidents and fatalities – over 16,000 and 90 per day respectively – imagine if they were reported upon like every new incidence of COVID. What would that do to our willingness to drive? For a while, I suspect it would keep us all off the roads, right? I mean, six million accidents out of the blue is a lot to process, and 36,000 deaths is scary – especially if you don’t know how high that number could get. It would take us a while to access the risk, before we blindly hopped into our cars again. Eventually though – after getting some context and perspective – we’d be able to evaluate the relative danger of operating a motor vehicle. Then, we could decide for ourselves when to drive, where to drive, and how much to drive. And so we do.
Again, don’t misunderstand. I’m not ignoring COVID, or downplaying COVID, or pretending the risks at hand aren’t real. Nor am I comparing COVID cases to car accidents – I’m simply comparing the fear of each to the other, and the fear that always accompanies uncertainty. I don’t want to get this disease or give it to someone else, any more than I want to be in a car car wreck that injures someone else. But I’ve accepted certain things about the pandemic, and now, I’ve gotten used to the risk as I understand it. I take precautions. I get tested as often as I can, and if I can’t physically distance, I wear a mask – especially around higher risk people. Likewise, I wear a seatbelt, obey the speed limits, and check my mirrors before changing lanes. Yes – I’m aware that we’d all be a lot safer if we kept our cars in the garage. I’m also aware we’d be a lot safer if we all kept ourselves in the house. But that’s not why cars, or people, exist.
Anyway Darlene, that’s a long way of saying that I have accepted Dr. Osterholm’s numbers, and now, after three months of acceptance, I’ve made a decision on how I wish to live my life. Sooner or later, you will too. We all will.
Mike
 

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What a perfectly excellent response by Mr. Rowe. Those mental side effect lie at the hands of the fear-mongers that have taken over our media and our governments. I hope and pray we can get through them quicker than later.
 

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Discussion Starter #848
Hospitals have not been "overwhelmed" despite the press' sensational headlines in this second wave. I wish I could channel Alex Berensen here because he's been providing clear facts to refute some pretty outlandish claims.

Well I did Not say Hospital Are "Overwhelmed" right now I actually stated,
Hospitalizations and the "overwhelming" of the Health Care systems could cause great danger.

On my states "Covid-19 Dashboard" we have been bouncing on the Low 90%
of ICU beds in use for Covid since the end of June.


Now, the city is preparing to utilize the Community Center (Concert Venue) for "Overflow Beds" if needed.

No Media Sensationalism involved, Matter of fact Dr. Richard Carmona is part of the Leadership,
I pay very close attention to his words & thoughts, there is very much Respect for him down here.
(Former T.P.D. Swat Dr. then U.S. Surgeon General, Now at Banner Hospital &

Leading the U of A's Health Dept in preparing for College Students return & contingency Planning).

Let's all hope the rate doesn't stay flat but continues to go down and down far enough that the actual daily average shrinks as well!!!

I Agree 100% about hoping the rate falls.
although, The U.S.A. is currently experiencing over 1k per day recently.



While work continues on a vaccine, new methods for treating symptoms are having a materially positive impact on the sickest patients WHO welcomes preliminary results about dexamethasone use in treating critically ill COVID-19 patients

Very Cool,
I heard on N.P.R. yesterday that there are now 2 vaccine candidates moving into phase 3 trials.

(from Oxford College i think.)

I agree. The truly sad thing is the number of deaths from Alzheimer's, Cancer, Cardiovascular disease, etc. that are much higher but we don't even know, care or talk about.

Yes, it is something how we approach Different Health Issues.
it seems to me that most are related to an individuals lifestyle choices, but still...



Now if you want to get really callous about who's dying; Berensen posted this earlier today re: deaths in Michigan:
I Wasn't angling for Callous when i said "I never woulda' thunk it".
 

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We are no longer 24 hours into an emergency. We are four months into this virus, and it’s time to function like the representative republic that we are.
There are numerous political and scientific questions any thinking person should be asking at this point.

 

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First, please stop inline quoting. If you want to make a point by point rebuttal, rather than spending the time coloring, cut and paste the response so it can be quoted.

Now, why do you seek the negative in virtually everything?

“We’ve been bouncing on the Low 90%” - no you haven’t. Arizona hasn’t even hit 90% of ICU capacity yet, so why round up and make the situation worse than it really is?

But wait... why aren’t you even looking at the real Covid-19 use of ICU beds in Arizona? Same source...


It’s really no better than the news media when you gloss over the fact ‘rona ICU bed usage has been going down for the last week and a half, or that confirmed cases in Arizona are way down over where they were 2-3-4 weeks ago...


And if you want to listen to Dr. Carmona, that’s great. He has the chops (although you did fail to mention his stint on the board of Herbalife or his failed bid as the Democrat candidate for the Senate in 2012 - because we know none of this Covid stuff has been politicized). Thankfully, Arizona’s own numbers appear to indicate you are past the peak.

Oh and I wasn’t accusing you of being callous, I was accusing Berensen of making his point so nonchalantly... Covid “mostly kills people who are about to die from other causes.” Sounds bad, but appears to be backed by the data from Michigan.
 

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Decent comparison for a n95 if you need a mask to wear all day long. Came in a package of 10. I let them air out for 2 weeks beforehand.
Since it has earloops won't be n95 quality but next best thing for wearing for multiple hours. Looks like China ppe has came down to almost normal prices.
 

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Discussion Starter #853
Allrighty then,

First, please stop inline quoting. If you want to make a point by point rebuttal, rather than spending the time coloring, cut and paste the response so it can be quoted.

I actually like this way of rebutting better.

Now, why do you seek the negative in virtually everything?

Still NOT being negative over here, just stating the Facts and how I see them.

“We’ve been bouncing on the Low 90%” - no you haven’t. Arizona hasn’t even hit 90% of ICU capacity yet, so why round up and make the situation worse than it really is?

Yes,,, Yes we Have been bouncing on the Low 90% of ICU Beds IN USE since the End of June...

But wait... why aren’t you even looking at the real Covid-19 use of ICU beds in Arizona? Same source...

Now I do not know what page your looking at so maybe you should just Click Here,
AZDHS | COVID-19 Dashboards
Now click on "Hospital Bed Usage & Availability" it's all right there for your scrutiny...
FYI, The Red Columns are "In Use" & the Grey Columns on top are "Available"
just hover over them for more info.
(BTW - Your ICU bed chart below only provides raw numbers on beds in use,
with No mention of Totals Or Availability.)






It’s really no better than the news media when you gloss over the fact ‘rona ICU bed usage has been going down for the last week and a half, or that confirmed cases in Arizona are way down over where they were 2-3-4 weeks ago...

Your 2nd chart is so far Off,,, but you can see the Current Info
on the 1st page when you visit the Link I provided above.
Just look at and compare the County Counts.
(Want some other tid-bits? check the PCR & Serology Testing Percentages....)






And if you want to listen to Dr. Carmona, that’s great. He has the chops (although you did fail to mention his stint on the board of Herbalife or his failed bid as the Democrat candidate for the Senate in 2012 - because we know none of this Covid stuff has been politicized).
Did Not know that,
But you Are right about him having Chops and I Trust Him....


Thankfully, Arizona’s own numbers appear to indicate you are past the peak.
Only Time will tell.


Oh and I wasn’t accusing you of being callous, I was accusing Berensen of making his point so nonchalantly... Covid “mostly kills people who are about to die from other causes.” Sounds bad, but appears to be backed by the data from Michigan.
I Didn't think you were, nor did I feel attacked either.

Oh and by the way,
Maybe you should try re-reading my posts before you accuse me of being a Sensationalist and a Liar....
 

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I’ve always been surprised when some of my hospitalist friends tell me the hospital they work at has ‘x’ numbers of ICU beds. For example one fella told me the main hospital he works out of only has 6 ICU beds. Then you could go to Lakeland Regional Medical and they have over 150. The numbers vary all over the map.
 

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Allrighty then,

First, please stop inline quoting. If you want to make a point by point rebuttal, rather than spending the time coloring, cut and paste the response so it can be quoted.

I actually like this way of rebutting better.

OK, have it your way...

Now, why do you seek the negative in virtually everything?

Still NOT being negative over here, just stating the Facts and how I see them.

Highlighting every negative fact while eschewing positive facts is fear mongering. No one is denying your facts, just your carefully curated facts of doom and gloom. Everything isn’t bad, so why choose to only post the negative bits?

“We’ve been bouncing on the Low 90%” - no you haven’t. Arizona hasn’t even hit 90% of ICU capacity yet, so why round up and make the situation worse than it really is?

Yes,,, Yes we Have been bouncing on the Low 90% of ICU Beds IN USE since the End of June...

I stand corrected, you are right and I am wrong. Two days at 91%, two days at 90% out of 26 days. The situation is dire... or not. Appears to be generally trending down over the past two weeks.



But wait... why aren’t you even looking at the real Covid-19 use of ICU beds in Arizona? Same source...

Now I do not know what page your looking at so maybe you should just Click Here,
AZDHS | COVID-19 Dashboards

We’re on the same page... literally the same data, but obviously not in how that information is interpreted. Kudos to Arizona for their transparency and making the information available.[COLOR]

Now click on "Hospital Bed Usage & Availability" it's all right there for your scrutiny...
FYI, The Red Columns are "In Use" & the Grey Columns on top are "Available"
just hover over them for more info.
(BTW - Your ICU bed chart below only provides raw numbers on beds in use,
with No mention of Totals Or Availability.)


Ah, excellent White Dragon, you are starting to think like an analyst. You are absolutely correct, the chart below shows raw numbers - ICU beds in use for Covid-19 only. It does not reduce the number of beds available in total though. Comparing the two charts, Covid-19 bed use peaked on the 13th and has dropped faster than occupied ICU beds, meaning either (a) the number of total beds was reduced (unlikely given the situation) or (b) a greater number of people were being admitted to an ICU with something other than Covid-19. I know it doesn’t fit the “doom and gloom” narrative, but recent trends suggest Arizona has passed its peak - and in more positive news, done a much better job than NY in reducing mortalities.




It’s really no better than the news media when you gloss over the fact ‘rona ICU bed usage has been going down for the last week and a half, or that confirmed cases in Arizona are way down over where they were 2-3-4 weeks ago...

Your 2nd chart is so far Off,,, but you can see the Current Info
on the 1st page when you visit the Link I provided above.
Just look at and compare the County Counts.
(Want some other tid-bits? check the PCR & Serology Testing Percentages....)


Your chosen source of data WD. Are you now suggesting they shouldn’t be trusted, or are you upset there is information that counters the constant fear mongering?[



I like this one too...



As for the testing percentages, it’s great information. Even better that Arizona is breaking down the PCR (virus) & Serology (antibodies) tests - a lot of states are combining those, falsely driving up the number of “cases”. Quick glance, I also find it reassuring the average age is moving down, which should continue to reduce the overall mortality rate. I’d also speculate given the difference in % between PCR & Serology positives that the majority of test are still being administered to folks who are either sick or in close contact with someone who is sick. We won’t know that until broader testing is done. August and September should be interesting as schools require testing before returning to campuses.



And if you want to listen to Dr. Carmona, that’s great. He has the chops (although you did fail to mention his stint on the board of Herbalife or his failed bid as the Democrat candidate for the Senate in 2012 - because we know none of this Covid stuff has been politicized).
Did Not know that,
But you Are right about him having Chops and I Trust Him....

...4 more years of this. I hope he’s wrong about how long it takes to develop a vaccine.

Thankfully, Arizona’s own numbers appear to indicate you are past the peak.
Only Time will tell.
…proving the axiom, “pessimist are never disappointed”. I hope for your sake and for your family, friends and neighbors sake, for all of us for that matter, the positive trend continues.

Oh and I wasn’t accusing you of being callous, I was accusing Berensen of making his point so nonchalantly... Covid “mostly kills people who are about to die from other causes.” Sounds bad, but appears to be backed by the data from Michigan.
I Didn't think you were, nor did I feel attacked either.

Oh and by the way,
Maybe you should try re-reading my posts before you accuse me of being a Sensationalist and a Liar....
[/COLOR]
…and this just sums everything up. Everything to an extreme and everything always negative. Liar? No. Fear monger? Yes.

You are so intent on being a victim, so intent on decrying the marginalization of your opinion, that you fail to recognize you leave no room for a differing opinion. No quarter apparently is asked or given on this topic, either we have to Mea Culpa on our knees, pouring salt in our mouths or prostrate ourselves in fealty to your narrative of doom and gloom.

The situation sucks. There I said it. Are you happy? But the pictures not as dire as you paint it either, are you prepared to admit that?

DOUBLE DOG DARE: I challenge you from now to the end of September, for every two NEGATIVE tid-bits, suggestion, articles, opinions, cartons, memes, narratives, etc. you post related to Covid-19 on FSB, that you post at least one POSITIVE piece.


EDIT: 3 for color
 
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Hey, more good news out of Arizona... they resurrected someone today!!!

New Covid-19 Deaths Reported Today = minus 1
 

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The purpose of the two day summit, organized by the Tea Party Patriots, is to allow “frontline doctors [the ability to] talk directly to the American people.” Topics to be discussed include the reopening of America’s schools, “medical cancel culture,” and the public policy.

Some SOB already took down their 45 minute outside presentation at the Capitol. Medical censorship at work against hydroxychloroquine using docs.
 
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